Futuros riesgos de un acuerdo nuclear iraní

RESUMEN

El presidente de los Estados Unidos, Barack Obama, viendo como se aproxima el fin de su mandato como presidente, quiere hacer un último gran movimiento, un acuerdo nuclear con Irán. Muchos están en contra de éste, debido a los antecedentes terroristas de Irán, sin embargo, según los analistas, Irán está lejos de tener lo recursos necesarios para desarrollar una bomba nuclear, además de que el presidente Obama dice que el “bloqueará” todos los caminos que pudiesen llevar al desarrollo de un arma nuclear iraní. También agrega que las sanciones impuestas a irán podrían levantarse en caso de que estos acepten disminuir su arsenal de uranio drásticamente, de manera que no cuenten con e suficiente para la elaboración de armas de destrucción masiva y que se aplicarían grandes sanciones en caso de descubrir a Irán incumpliendo el contrato. Aún así, se teme que en 15 años, cuando la economía iraní sea más fuerte, y posean las reservas necesarias, estos puedan desarrollar un arma en tan sólo semanas.

http://esp.rt.com/actualidad/public_images/1fe/1feded75a281f2dedfaaa4f6bcb95bd4_verybig.jpg

Son muchos los que están a favor y en contra del tratado, pero aún los que están a favor, temen una “traición” de Irán, por lo que se sugiere incrementar la seguridad y la investigación de la actividad nuclear que realice Irán en los próximos años, además de solicitar el derecho a que, en caso de descubrirse actividad ilícita, poder emplear además de sanciones económicas, el poder militar para acabar con dicha actividad. El mayor temor presente es la superproducción de Uranio.

Irán presenta interés en el acuerdo, una gran prueba de esto, es su disposición a que se mantengan bajo supervisión todos los lugares en los que se realicen actividades nucleares. Lo anterior es algo asombroso, ya que este país había rechazado durante muchos años a este tipo de investigaciones. Sin embargo, según el acuerdo, dentro de 15 años este control no se podrá seguir efectuando, e Irán tendría la libertad de desarrollar actividades nucleares en los lugares que desee sin tener la obligación de reportarlos. Aún así, en caso de que se solicite realizar una inspección a alguno de los lugares, Irán deberá permitirla, de lo contrario le serían aplicadas diversas sanciones económicas.

_____________________________________________________________

WASHINGTON — As President Obama begins his three-week push to win approval of the Iran nuclear deal, he is confronting this political reality: His strongest argument in favor of passage has also become his greatest vulnerability.

Mr. Obama has been pressing the case that the sharp limits on how much nuclear fuel Iran can hold, how many centrifuges it can spin and what kind of technology it can acquire would make it extraordinarily difficult for Iran to race for the bomb over the next 15 years.

His problem is that most of the significant constraints on Tehran’s program lapse after 15 years — and, after that, Iran is free to produce uranium on an industrial scale.

“The chief reservation I have about the agreement is the fact that in 15 years they have a highly modern and internationally legitimized enrichment capability,” said Representative Adam B. Schiff, a California Democrat who supports the accord. “And that is a bitter pill to swallow.”

Even some of the most enthusiastic backers of the agreement, reached by six world powers with Iran, say they fear Mr. Obama has oversold some of the accord’s virtues as he asserts that it would “block” all pathways to a nuclear weapon.

A more accurate description is that the agreement is likely to delay Iran’s program for a decade and a half — just as sanctions and sabotage have slowed Iran in recent years. The administration’s case essentially is that the benefits over the next 15 years overwhelmingly justify the longer-term risks of what comes after.

“Of course there are risks, and they have to be acknowledged,” said R. Nicholas Burns, who was undersecretary of state in the George W. Bush administration and has testified before Congress in favor of the deal. Mr. Obama’s “most convincing argument,” he added, “is that there is no better alternative out there.”

In making the administration’s case, Mr. Obama can underscore that economic sanctions on Iran begin to lift only as it reduces its current stockpile of low enriched uranium, to 300 kilograms, or 660 pounds. That is not enough to make a single nuclear weapon, and is a 98 percent reduction in its current stockpile of nearly 12 tons.

The accord also calls for regular inspections at Iran’s nuclear installations and includes arrangements to reimpose international sanctions if the Iranians are caught cheating.

But the flip side is that after 15 years, Iran would be allowed to produce reactor-grade fuel on an industrial scale using far more advanced centrifuges. That may mean that the warning time if Iran decided to race for a bomb would shrink to weeks, according to a recent Brookings Institution analysis by Robert J. Einhorn, a former member of the American negotiating team.

Critics say that by that time, Iran’s economy would be stronger, as would its ability to withstand economic sanctions, and its nuclear installations probably would be better protected by air defense systems, which Iran is expected to buy from Russia.

Some members of Congress and other experts are urging the administration to take fresh steps to deter Iran from edging dangerously close to a nuclear weapons capability after the main limits in the agreement expire.

“I believe it buys 15 years for real,” said Dennis B. Ross, who served as a White House adviser on Iran during Mr. Obama’s first term and has yet to decide if he will back the accord. “But I do see vulnerabilities that I feel must be addressed. The gap between threshold and weapons status after year 15 is small.”

A Loss of Leverage

The duration of the agreement is the most important and complex issue. Under restrictions imposed by the accord, Iran would need a full year to produce enough nuclear material for a bomb; currently that timeline is two or three months, according to American intelligence agencies. But starting at year 10, that “breakout time” would begin to shrink again, as Iran gets more centrifuges into operation.

Administration officials argue that it would be obvious if Iran made weapons-grade fuel, and negotiators secured a permanent ban on the metallurgy needed to turn the fuel into a bomb.

Supporters of the agreement are betting that improved intelligence would deter Iran from racing for a bomb. Under the agreement, inspectors will be able to monitor the production of rotors and other centrifuge components for up to 20 years and can monitor Iran’s stocks of uranium ore concentrate for 25 years.

Skeptics counter that, after 15 years, the United States would lose much of its leverage to stop a program. So Mr. Obama is trying to assure Congress that he and his successors will create that leverage.

In a letter last week to Representative Jerrold Nadler, a Democrat from New York, Mr. Obama detailed the expanded military support he has offered Israel and reaffirmed that the United States retains the option to use economic sanctions and even military force should Iran break out of its agreement.

But Mr. Obama’s letter was mostly a repackaging of previous assurances made to lawmakers, to Israel and to diplomats from Arab nations by the Persian Gulf.

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/150402145645-obama-speaking-0402-horizontal-gallery.jpg

Some backers of the agreement are urging the White House and Congress to do more. Mr. Schiff and Mr. Ross suggested in interviews that the United States should put Iran on notice that its production of highly enriched uranium after the main provisions of the accord expire would be taken by American officials as an indication that Iran has decided to pursue nuclear weapons — and could trigger an American military strike.

And both said the United States should also be prepared to provide bunker-busting bombs to Israel to deter Iran from trying to shield illicit nuclear work underground. Others have called for a long-term congressional “authorization to use military force” if Iran violated the accord.

Mr. Ross has also urged the White House to specify the penalties for smaller violations of the accord, an idea Mr. Obama rejected in his letter, saying he wanted to maintain “flexibility” to decide what responses might be needed.

Energy Secretary Ernest J. Moniz told a House committee last month that any attempt by Iran to produce highly enriched uranium “at any time must earn a sharp response by all necessary means.”

But some experts like Mr. Einhorn say that this warning should be conveyed directly, if privately, to Iran and that the United States should also increase intelligence sharing with the world’s nuclear inspector, the International Atomic Energy Agency, about possible Iranian cheating.

“The way to address challenges not covered by the agreement is to supplement it, not renegotiate it,” Mr. Einhorn said.

Accounting for the Past

One of the trickier issues for Mr. Obama, and for Congress, is how to assess whether Iran has truly come clean about its past nuclear activities, an enormously sensitive issue for the Iranians. And in the end, it is one that Secretary of State John Kerry decided not to press too hard during negotiations, for fear it would undermine the chances of getting stronger inspections for current and future activity.

The job of assessing past activities is up to the I.A.E.A. It must certify on Oct. 15 that Iran is complying with a “road map” for cooperation and report in December on the agency’s conclusions — especially about Iran’s alleged work developing nuclear triggers and designing warheads.

Critics of the accord note that Mr. Kerry and his chief negotiator, Wendy R. Sherman, said repeatedly that Iran must provide access to “people, places and documents” that would resolve those questions, something Iran has refused to do for years. But the I.A.E.A. has never publicly specified what it is asking, or whom it must meet.

Mr. Einhorn, in his analysis, concluded that “a full and honest disclosure by Iran of its past weaponization activities — which would contradict Tehran’s narrative of an exclusively peaceful program as well the supreme leader’s fatwa that Islam forbids nuclear weapons — was never in the cards.”

That said, he concludes, that may not be a “serious obstacle” to concluding Iran’s work has halted.

Accessing Nuclear Sites

While the accord calls for regular inspections at Iran’s nuclear sites, the enforcement is of limited duration. For example, while the I.A.E.A. can request access to all declared nuclear sites under the agreements it has with all member states, the far more intrusive monitoring at Iran’s main nuclear enrichment site at Natanz is not mandated after 15 years. At that point, Iran also would be free to carry out nuclear enrichment at other locations.

But the issue that has garnered the most attention is a “24-day” rule for resolving disputes if Iran refuses to give inspectors access to a suspicious site — another measure that expires after 15 years. (After that, inspectors can still demand to enter sites, but under the existing rules, which do not set a deadline for compliance.) Critics say that is far different from “anywhere, anytime” access — a phrase Mr. Moniz and others in the administration used a few months ago, and have come to regret.

If Iran balks at an inspection, then a commission — which includes Iran — can decide on punitive steps, including a reimposition of economic sanctions. A majority vote of the commission suffices, so even if Iran, China and Russia objected, the sanctions could go into effect.

That is the theory. In practice, reimposing sanctions could be politically challenging. Iran has warned that if sanctions are reimposed it will no longer be bound by the accord. The I.A.E.A., perhaps fearing its inspectors would be kicked out, might hesitate to start the 24-day clock.

Mr. Moniz argues that the 24-day time frame is sufficient because Iran will not be able to cover up evidence of nuclear work during that period, since traces of nuclear materials could be expected well after three weeks. But some experts say that Iran could cover up smaller-scale illicit activities, including work on the specialized high-explosives that might serve as a trigger in a nuclear bomb.

Fuente: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/24/world/middleeast/in-pushing-for-the-iran-nuclear-deal-obamas-rationale-shows-flaws.html?ref=world&_r=0

Tibetan immolations: Desperation as world looks away

RESUMEN

Inmolaciones tibetanas: La desesperación como el mundo mira hacia otro lado

La inhóspita región del Tíbet es el hogar de 6 millones de tibetanos, mientras que los monjes salen de sus oraciones en sus túnicas granate, las mujeres cubiertas en perlas caminan por el monasterio y se postran en el suelo. 

http://alcione.cl/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Monje-meditando.jpg

Desde que las tropas chinas tomaron control sobre el Tíbet hace más de medio siglo, y por tal razón el Dalai Lama huyó al exilio, el número de monasterios existentes en el Tíbet ha caído en picada. por razones de seguridad los periodistas han tenido que mantenerse al margen del Tíbet, esto mientras las tensiones disminuyen.

China ha estado controlando todos los aspectos de los ciudadanos tibetanos, tanto su vida como su cultura, China esta intentado controlar a los extranjeros que entran en esta zona, ya que no quieren que se encuentre ninguno por esos alrededores.

Los tibetanos se sienten excluidos y discriminados por el gobierno Chino, y muchos sienten miedo de hablar sobre el tema y simplemente niegan con la cabeza.

http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/media/images/71487000/jpg/_71487498_71487497.jpg

El mundo exterior no se preocupa por hacer algo con esta situación, al resto de los países lo único que les importa son las finanzas y los mercados que China les puede ofrecer, ellos hacen caso omiso a la violación de los derechos humanos presentes en este país. Esta situación hace que los mismos tibetanos hagan protestas extremistas, en las cuales han llegado a atentar contra su propia vida.

Pero muchas veces las autoridades chinas interrogan y hasta culpan a aquellos que no han hecho nada, los cuales por el cruel ambiente generado en las interrogaciones terminan por quitarse la vida.

Las brutales reacciones de las autoridades chinas ante esta protestas han sido tan horribles, que los tibetanos optaron por dejarse reprimir y sentirse menos que el resto de los ciudadanos chinos.

http://ichef-1.bbci.co.uk/news/624/media/images/71487000/gif/_71487793_china_ethnic_464x510.gif

_________________________________________________________________________________

Tibetan immolations: Desperation as world looks away

It's sunrise and 20 degrees below zero. The sound of monks at prayer drifts across the snow-lined valley.

We are high in the jagged mountains that rise towards the Tibetan plateau. Harsh and beautiful, this region outside Tibet itself is home to six million Tibetans.

A monk is sweeping snow from the steps that lead to a small stupa. Tibetans, wrapped in blankets to keep out the cold, circle inside it, spinning prayer wheels.

Further up the hillside, a morning mist hangs over the golden roofs of the monastery behind. Scattered through these Alpine valleys, the monasteries preserve Tibet's way of life.

Monks in claret robes emerge from their morning devotions, while women adorned with beads circle the monastery, then prostrate themselves on the ground.

Since Chinese troops asserted control over Tibet more than half a century ago, and the Dalai Lama fled into exile, the number of monasteries has fallen precipitously.

And for months now, journalists have been kept out of Tibetan areas as tensions have simmered in the region.

We slipped in unnoticed. China does not want foreign interference here.

The monks we approached were nervous, China has been stepping up surveillance.

One young monk shook his head indicating he didn't want to talk; other monks waved us away or retreated into their quarters. They have good reason to be cautious.

China has been tightening its hold, not just on the monasteries, but all aspects of Tibetan life and culture.

Amongst Tibetans there have been growing frustrations. And there's an impression that, since the financial crisis, the outside world, and the West in particular, are not so keen to tackle China on its human rights record.

What nations want is access to China's markets and its finances.

So Tibetans have been resorting to extreme protests, setting themselves on fire. More than 120 are thought to have done so in the past three years in protest at Chinese rule in their homeland.

Some are said to have called for the return of the Dalai Lama as they have carried out their immolations.

Acts of desperation they may be, but China says the immolators are incited, even paid by the Dalai Lama.

Fearing widespread unrest, it has clamped down even harder, arresting and even jailing Tibetans accused of aiding those who have self-immolated.

Prayer flags flutter outside the home of home of one man who took his own life. We tracked down his family, but have to keep their identity secret.

His brother told us the father of two had not received money from the Dalai Lama. The mere suggestion, he said, was insulting.

He said the authorities had been many times to question him. They wanted to know why his brother had set fire to himself, but all he could tell them was his brother was a good man acting out of conscience. Tibetans, he added, are frustrated.

"I often feel as a Tibetan I am inferior," he explained. "I feel very bad about this.

"Tibetans who go to the cities to find work are seen as darker and dirtier than other people; we're often discriminated against. I do think I am treated differently."

He insisted there had been no reprisals against his family by the authorities. But the man's father and mother were clearly nervous about talking to foreign reporters.

In these bleak and windswept mountains, where herders tend the shaggy black yaks that roam the hillsides, there are few jobs for Tibetans. China says it is changing this, building roads, bringing new wealth. But development is another source of conflict.

In mid-August there was a protest in central Tibet by people worried the local environment would be damaged by mining developments. Many Tibetans feel their resources are being exploited for Chinese gain.

China's response to the protest, as to much Tibetan opposition, was harsh. Tibetan exile groups said police moved in, firing tear gas and using electric prods, to clear the demonstration.

In another village we found a woman stacking piles of straw for winter fodder for her animals. She told us there have been five or six immolations at the monastery near her home.

She did not want to give us her name but told us of the crackdowns that followed the immolations.

"We feel under pressure. There have been arrests. Police came and detained people.

"Families don't even know where their relatives have been taken."

Not far away Tibetans were circling a shrine, spinning the prayer wheels. A group of elderly ladies bowed before the building, clasping their hands. Then they lay face down reciting prayers.

After the clampdown and the media blackout, the immolations are now less frequent.

But what is not being addressed are the grievances here: Tibetans fear that they are being marginalised, their culture eroded, their voices silenced, all while the rest of the world looks away.

Fuente: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-25195006

Las Perseidas: la lluvia de meteoros que iluminará la Tierra

RESUMEN

Entre la noche del 12 y la madrugada del 13 de Agosto de este año se podrá presenciar la lluvia de meteoros conocida como las Perseidas, que son trozos del cometa Swift-Tuttle que visita 
la tierra cada 133 años. En esta ocasión el acontecimiento se podrá apreciar bajo condiciones particularmente favorables gracias a que coincide con la Luna nueva, por lo que los obstáculos de la observación se verán menguados. 

Esta lluvia de meteoros se produce cuando la Tierra se cruza con el cinturón de partículas (meteoros) dejado atrás por el cometa que son liberadas al acercarse al Sol. Estos ingresan en la atmósfera terrestre a una velocidad de 60 kilómetros por segundo. 
El aire es calentado a su alrededor por el impacto que experimentan al atravesar la atmósfera, creando estela de luz brillante que pueden ser visibles desde la Tierra. 

Este fenómeno se presenta todos los años con un auge entre el 17 de Julio y el 24 de Agosto.

Se calcula que se podrán avistar al rededor de 100 meteoros por hora, especialmente en el hemisferio Norte. El espectáculo parece originarse en un punto conocido como radiante. De la localización del radiante procede el nombre que se le otorgó a los meteoros finalmente, este se encuentra en la constelación de Perseo, es por esto que tomaron por nombre Perseidas.
Esta maravilla es posible apreciarla a simple vista en todo su esplendor, no necesita ser vista con telescopio.

Fuente: http://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias/2015/08/150811_perseidas_cometa_lluvia_meteoros_lp

Las Perseidas: la lluvia de meteoros que iluminará la Tierra

Es un show espectacular, tiene lugar entre la noche del 12 de agosto y la madrugada del 13, el mejor palco es el hemisferio norte y la entrada es gratuita.
Es la lluvia de meteoros conocida como las Perseidas que este año promete ser aún más impactante que en 2014.

Las condiciones para observar este fenómeno son particularmente favorables -siempre y cuando el cielo esté despejado- ya que por primera vez desde 2007, la lluvia coincide con la Luna nueva.
En fotos: una espectacular lluvia de meteoritos

Las perseidas son en realidad trozos del cometa Swift-Tuttle que cada 133 años visita la Tierra.
Al pasar, el cometa deja una nube de escombros en medio de la órbita terrestre, y cada vez que nuestro planeta atraviesa esa región, estos pedazos ingresan en la atmósfera terrestre a una velocidad de 60 kilómetros por segundo.

Cuando chocan con la atmósfera, calientan el aire a su alrededor y generan líneas fugaces de luz que se ven todos los años desde la Tierra entre el 17 de julio y el 24 de agosto.

En su momento de mayor intensidad -calculado para la noche y madrugada del 12 y 13 de agosto- se podrán ver hasta 100 meteoros por hora.
"El cielo casi sin Luna de este año significa que la visión será excelente", señaló Alan MacRobert, editor de la revista especializada Sky & Telescope.

Lo mejor para disfrutar del espectáculo es verlo desde un sitio alejado de las luces artificiales.
Desde la Tierra, la lluvia de meteoros parece originarse en un único punto que se conoce como radiante.
Su localización se usa para darle nombre al fenómeno. Como el radiante está en la constelación de Perseo, se las llama Perseidas.
Para verlas no hace falta usar telescopios ni ningún otro implemento.

Lo mejor es encontrar un lugar al aire libre oscuro, lejos de luces artificiales.
La próxima aproximación del cometa Swift-Tuttle al Sol será en julio de 2126.

Familia Bin Laden en accidente aéreo en el aeropuerto Blackbushe

RESUMEN

El pasado 31 de Julio de 2015 el jet privado proveniente de Milán, Italia, en el cual venían los familiares del terrorista Osama Bin Laden, se estrelló en Hampshire, Inglaterra, a unos cuantos metros de la pista de aterrizaje. Aun se investigan las posibles causas del accidente que cobró la vida de los 3 pasajeros y el piloto. Afortunadamente, nadie fuera de la aeronave salió herido.

Imagen 1: familia Bin Laden

Los informes dicen que en el avión venían la madre, hermana y hermanastro del propietario de la aeronave, la cual pertenecía a una compañía aeronáutica propiedad de la familia Bin Laden.

Desde que Mohammed Bin Laden (padre de Osama) migró de Yemen a Arabia Saudita en 1910, y desarrolló un imperio de la construcción que hoy continua vigente, estando detrás de los mas grandes proyectos de construcción del país (Contrario a lo que se piensa de la familia Bin Laden en occidente), en Arabia Saudita son vistos como grandes filántropos y negociantes. De hecho, Osama fue repudiado por varios miembros de su familia (varios habitantes de los Estados Unidos) luego de los ataques el 11 de Septiembre de 2001 a las torres gemelas.

Imagen 2: accidente 

El príncipe y embajador de Arabia Saudita en el Reino Unido, Mohammed bin Nawaf Al Saud, dio sus condolencias a la familia por su gran pérdida, y dijo que junto a la embajada se está trabajando para trasladar los cuerpos a Arabia Saudita lo más pronto posible para su funeral.

Imagen 3: Bin Laden

Bin Laden family on Blackbushe Airport crash plane

Family members of Osama Bin Laden were killed in a private jet crash in Hampshire on Friday, the Saudi Arabian embassy in the UK has said.

It came down near Blackbushe Airport, close to the Surrey border, killing the pilot and all three passengers.

In a statement, the Saudi ambassador to the UK, Prince Mohammed bin Nawaf Al Saud, offered condolences to the Bin Laden family.

The embassy said it was in contact with the British crash investigators.

The statement said: "His Royal Highness Prince Mohammed bin Nawaf Al Saud... has paid his condolences to the family and relatives of Mohammed bin Laden at Blackbushe airport in Britain for the great loss they have suffered as a result of the crash of the plane that was carrying the family."

The embassy added that it was working with the British authorities to ensure the speedy handover of the bodies for funerals and burials in Saudi Arabia.

The plane - an Embraer Phenom 300 - is reported to have belonged to an aviation firm owned by the Saudi-based family of the former al-Qaeda leader.

The plane, which was arriving from Milan, Italy, crashed into a British Car Auctions site at the airfield shortly after 15:00 BST, exploding on impact.

Eyewitnesses at the scene said there had been a "ball of flames" and "several explosions".

The pilot and all three passengers were killed but no-one on the ground was injured, Hampshire Police said.

In a statement, the force said: "We do believe three of the deceased to be the mother, sister and brother-in-law of the owner of the aircraft, all of whom are from the Bin Laden family, but formal post-mortem examinations are ongoing.

"They were Saudi Arabian nationals and visiting the UK on vacation."

It is carrying out a joint investigation with the Air Accidents Investigation Branch (AAIB) and has urged anyone with pictures and videos to get in touch on 101.

A spokeswoman for AAIB said a team had been deployed to the site.

In a statement, Blackbushe Airport, in Yateley, which is currently closed, said the jet had crashed near the end of the runway while attempting to make a landing.

Phil Giles, a former air accident investigator, said: "It suggests that the plane either landed too late or tried to take off again when the pilot realised it wasn't going to make the end of the runway.

"Or it may have been a problem with the brakes."

A spokeswoman for Milan Malpensa Airport confirmed the plane had left at 13:30 BST on its way to Hampshire.

The Saudi General Authority of Civil Aviation tweeted that the plane was a Saudi-registered private aircraft, and said it would support the UK's AAIB in its investigation.

Geoff Pierce, an aviation enthusiast from Fleet in Hampshire, was at Blackbushe airfield and saw the plane come down.

He said the plane did not seem to make a normal approach and appeared to be going at high speed.

"The next thing I knew the siren was wailing on the control tower and then I saw a big plume of black smoke," he said.

Fuente: http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-33745057